Exit Poll 2024 Highlights: Narendra Modi predicted to return for third term

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Copy Edited By Adam Rizvi, The India Observer, TIO: Exit Poll 2024 Highlights: Most of the pollsters have predicted a comfortable win for the BJP-led NDA, projecting a third successive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, powered by big gains in states like West Bengal and Telangana and repeating its 2019 performance in most of the states. The BJP-led NDA is likely to open its account in Tamil Nadu and Kerala but may see a fall in its tally in states like Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana, according to the pollsters.

Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters immediately after they leave polling stations. These polls aim to predict the outcome of an election before official results are available.

Congress on Friday announced its decision not to participate in any Lok Sabha exit poll debates on television channels. Congress spokesperson and media department chairperson Pawan Khera said the voters have cast their votes and their verdict has been secured, adding that the party doesn’t “see any reason to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP.”

BJP president J P Nadda claimed that the Congress’s decision amounts to an “unequivocal confirmation” that the opposition party has conceded the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In a post on X, Nadda urged voters not to waste their votes in the seventh and last phase of the polls on Saturday, arguing that the Congress typically opts out when it doesn’t expect favourable results but has no compunction showing up if it thinks it has even an outside chance.

However, the grand old party on Saturday said all INDIA parties would participate in the exit poll results.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded his extensive Lok Sabha campaign with a rally in Punjab’s Hoshiarpur. Since the Election Commission announced the poll schedule on March 16, Modi has conducted 206 public outreach events, surpassing his 145 engagements during the 2019 elections. Over the 76-day campaign period, he visited all five southern states, focusing on improving the BJP’s standing in regions where it previously had little success. Modi’s relentless campaigning, marked by rallies, roadshows, and 80 media interviews, highlighted his role as the BJP’s primary vote-getter. The impact of his efforts will be revealed on June 4, when the election results are declared.

In a vigorous campaign effort to boost the Congress’ chances in the Lok Sabha elections, party leaders Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra each participated in over 100 public outreach events. Rahul Gandhi campaigned in Punjab on the final day of campaigning for the seventh phase of voting, while Priyanka Gandhi led a roadshow in Solan, Himachal Pradesh. Kharge engaged in more than 100 rallies, over 20 press conferences, and over 70 media interactions. Rahul Gandhi took part in 107 rallies and major events, and Priyanka Gandhi was involved in 108 public meetings and roadshows, giving numerous media interviews. Priyanka Gandhi focused on Rae Bareli and Amethi as she campaigned in 16 states and one union territory.

Exit poll predictions should not be blindly trusted, and there have been notable instances of incorrect predictions in recent years. However, the exit polls for the 2019 and 2014 Indian general elections almost accurately captured the overall sentiment.

In 2019, exit polls predicted an average of 306 seats for the NDA and 120 for the UPA. The actual results were significantly higher for the NDA, which won 352 seats (with the BJP alone securing 303), while the UPA won only 93 seats (with Congress getting 52). India Today-Axis My India had predicted 352 seats for the BJP-led NDA, while News24-Today’s Chanakya also predicted a big win for the BJP.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 303 seats, 21 more than its 2014 tally, while the Congress party was restricted to 52 seats. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and YSRCP won 23 seats each, followed by Mamata Banerjee’s TMC 22, Shiv Sena 18, JD(U) 16, BJD 12, BSP 10, SP 5, NCP 5, and CPI(M) 3.

This time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a target of over 400 seats for the NDA, with the BJP aiming for more than 370 seats.

Stay tuned as we bring you real-time updates, expert analyses, and reactions from across the political spectrum. Whether you’re keen to know which party might hold the reins of power or how individual states have swayed, our comprehensive coverage aims to keep you informed every step of the way.

These are just predictions and pollsters could get it wrong.

Exit Poll 2024: Key takeways from exit poll results

Exit polls indicate that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to win a comfortable majority in the general election.

Most polls suggest the NDA could secure a two-thirds majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha, surpassing the simple majority threshold of 272 seats.

A summary of six exit polls predicts the NDA might win between 355 and 380 seats.

In comparison, the NDA won 353 seats in the 2019 election, with the BJP alone securing 303 seats.

The opposition INDIA bloc, led by the Congress party, is projected to win between 125 and 165 seats.

The NDA is likely to make gains in Tamil Nadu and Kerala and dominate in Karnataka.

However, it may experience a decline in states such as Bihar, Rajasthan, and Haryana.

Exit Poll 2024: TMC rejects exit poll results

The Trinamool Congress rejected the exit polls results that predicted a big win for the BJP-led NDA saying it believed in people’s mandate.

Exit Poll 2024: India Today-Axis My India projects 361-401 seats for NDA

India Today-Axis My India has projected a two-thirds majority for the NDA with 361-401 seats in Lok Sabha polls. The opposition INDIA bloc is expected to win 131-166 seats.

Exit Poll 2024: DMK, allies strong show predicted in Tamil Nadu

Exit polls projected a strong showing for the DMK and its allies in Tamil Nadu, with predictions of them winning the majority of the 39 Lok Sabha seats. The Axis My India exit poll forecasted the BJP-led NDA securing 2-4 seats in Tamil Nadu, with the INDIA bloc, which includes DMK and Congress, likely to win 33-37 seats. This poll also predicted a significant increase in NDA’s vote share in Tamil Nadu to 22%, while the INDIA bloc was expected to get 46%.

According to News 18, the NDA might win 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu, with the INDIA bloc potentially securing 36-39 seats.

Tamil Nadu sends 39 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

Exit Poll 2024: Pollsters’ prediction for Karnataka

Exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA w win the majority of seats in Congress-ruled Karnataka in the Lok Sabha elections, while the Congress is expected to perform poorly. India Today-Axis My India poll predicted the NDA winning 23-25 seats and the INDIA bloc securing 3-5 seats. India TV’s exit poll projected the NDA winning 19-25 seats and the INDIA bloc getting 4-8 seats. News18’s exit poll suggested the NDA would win 23-26 seats, with the INDIA bloc getting 3-7 seats. Although the Congress gained power in Karnataka in 2023, the exit polls indicate a poor showing in the current elections.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 25 out of 28 seats in Karnataka. This time, the BJP is contesting 25 seats in coalition with JD-S, which is contesting 3 seats.

Exit Poll 2024: What exit poll results show

Republic TV Matrize: NDA – 353-368; INDIA – 118-133; Others – 43-48

India News D Dynamics: NDA – 371; INDIA – 125; Others – 47

NDTV India – Jan Ki Baat: NDA – 365; INDIA – 142; Others – 36

News Nation: NDA – 342-378; INDIA – 153-169; Others – 21-23

Exit Poll 2024: BJP to sweep Delhi despite AAP-Congress alliance, pollsters predict

2024 Exit poll results: The BJP is expected to win all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi despite an alliance between Congress and AAP, according to pollsters.

Exit Poll 2024: Modi says confident of election victory as vote ends

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he was confident of a third successive mandate after polls closed in the country’s marathon six-week Lok Sabha election.

“I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to reelect the NDA government,” Modi said on X.

Exit Poll 2024: Most pollsters predict close contest in Maharashtra

2024 Exit Poll: Maharashtra is expected to provide some relief for the INDIA bloc, with most pollsters predicting neck-and-neck contest.

Exit Poll 2024: Big gains for BJP in Telangana, predicts CVoter

The BJP is likely to get unprecedented results in Telangana by winning seven to nine Lok Sabha seats in the southern state, according to CVoter exit poll. TV 9 Bharatvarsh predicted that the BJP-led NDA would win seven of the 17 seats, the INDIA bloc would secure eight seats, and others would take two seats. India TV’s poll suggested the NDA could win 8-10 seats, the opposition bloc 6-8 seats, and others 0-2 seats. News18 India’s exit poll projected the BJP winning 7-10 seats, the INDIA bloc 5-8 seats, BRS 2-5 seats, and others 0-1 seats. Both the BJP and Congress are expected to improve their performance from 2019, with a more notable gain for the BJP.

Exit Poll 2024: BJP to win all 26 seats in Gujarat, predicts Times Now-ETG Research

2024 Exit Poll: Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is likely to give all seats to the BJP, according to Times Now-ETG Research exit poll results.

Exit Poll 2024: Madhya Pradesh headed for BJP sweep, most pollsters predict

2024 Exit Poll: The BJP may sweep all Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, according to several pollsters. Axis My India projects BJP to win 28-29 seats in Madhya Pradesh while Congress could end up losing the only seat it won in 2019 elections.

Exit Poll 2024: BJP to win 19 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan, predicts TV9 Bharatavarsh – Polstart

2024 Exit Poll: The Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win 19 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan, with the opposition INDIA bloc winning 5 seats, according to TV9 Bharatavarsh – Polstart exit poll results.

Exit Poll 2024: BJP to sweep Chhattisgarh by winning all 11 Lok Sabha seats, predicts NDTV India-Jan ki Baat

A saffron wave is predicted in Chhattisgarh with BJP expected to win all 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state, according to NDTV India-Jan ki Baat exit poll results.

Exit Poll 2024: BJP to improve its West Bengal tally, per NDTV India-Jan ki Baat

The BJP is likely to improve on its 2019 tally in West Bengal with more than 21 Lok Sabha seats, according to NDTV India-Jan Ki Baat exit poll results.

Exit Poll 2024: ABP News-CVoter projects 37-39 seats for INDIA, 0-2 for NDA

DMK-led coalition in Tamil Nadu is expected to win 37-39 seats in the state, while the AIADMK is not likely to open its account, according to ABP News-CVoter.

Exit Poll 2024: What the projections so far suggest

Exit Poll 2024: Most of the pollsters have predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, giving its more than 350 seats in Lok Sabha.

Exit Poll 2024: India News-D-Dynamics projects big win for BJP

Exit polls results of India News-D-Dynamics suggest a wave for the Narendra Modi-led BJP, with NDA likely to win 371 seats.

Exit Poll 2024: NDTV India-Jan Ki Baat predicts 2019 repeat for NDA

NDTV India-Jan Ki Baat has projected 362-392 seats for the BJP-led NDA while 141-161 seats for the opposition INDIA bloc.

Exit Poll 2024: TV9 Bharatavarsh–Polstrat projects 20 seats for NDA in Karnataka

According to TV9 Bharatavarsh–Polstrat, the BJP-led NDA is expected to win 20 seats while Congress is expected to secure eight seats. In 2019, BJP won 25 out of 30 Lok Sabha seats in the state while Congress managed to wi just one seat.

Exit Poll 2024: Setback for INDIA bloc in Karnataka, Axis My India projects

The Congress party is likely heading for a setback in Karnataka, where it won the assembly election, according to Axis My India. The exit poll results suggest NDA to win 23-25 seats in Karnataka.

Exit Poll 2024: Republic Bharat-P Marq projects at least 353 seats for NDA

Republic Bharat-P Marq exit poll results suggest a repeat of the 2019 general elections, with the BJP-led NDA winning 353-368 seats while opposition INDIA bloc restricted to less than 133 seats.

Exit Poll 2024: India Today-Axis My India projects big win for INDIA bloc

India Today-Axis My India has projected a big win for the INDIA bloc even as the seats are expected to decline from the last Lok Sabha elections.


First Published inThe Hindustan Times


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